Más de cien mil ucranianos han desertado del ejército

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Colapsa el frente en Ucrania:

[Buzz]

[Robespierre]

Pobrecitos,los de Zelenski corren en desbandada.

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With U.S. aid resumed, Ukraine will try to dig itself out of trouble
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... omes-next/

U.S. officials say Ukraine, even with resumption of American military aid, must address manpower shortages and shore up defenses to enable future offensives.

A long-awaited influx of U.S. weapons will help Ukraine to blunt Russia’s advance in the coming months, Biden administration officials said after Congress passed a major aid package, but an acute troop shortage and Moscow’s firepower advantage mean that Kyiv won’t likely regain major offensive momentum until 2025 at the earliest.

Lawmakers’ approval of the foreign aid bill following months of partisan gridlock was a victory for President Biden. The sprawling legislation includes $61 billion to fuel Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s invading forces.

As initial shipments of arms, including artillery shells, air defense missiles, and armored vehicles, begin to reach Ukraine, U.S. officials said they expect the new weapons will buy time for Kyiv to replenish its military ranks and strengthen battlefield defenses — including trenches and minefields — ahead of an expected Russian offensive.

A U.S. defense official, who like some others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss Western projections, said the aid would give Ukraine the chance to better cope with continued Russian attacks “whether on the front lines or in the skies” and more effectively defend troops and civilians alike.

“But time is precious,” the official said. “And time shouldn’t be wasted.”

The foreign aid package’s approval, over objections from a cohort of House Republicans, was a desperately needed injection of hope for Ukraine, where exhausted combat units have been outgunned 5 to 1 as they have been forced to ration ammunition in the face of Russian glide bombs and increasingly bold aircraft assaults. As the legislation languished in Congress, Ukrainian officials made urgent pleas for air defense systems, blaming the shortage for Russia’s string of successful attacks on cities and power plants.

President Volodymyr Zelensky characterized the long-delayed American aid as a lifeline, but stressed that the promised resupply must arrive quickly. “We will have a chance for victory if Ukraine really gets the weapon system which we need so much,” he told NBC News last weekend. Zelensky’s office did not immediately respond to a request seeking comment for this report, but has acknowledged the challenges Ukraine’s military faces.

More than two years after President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion, Ukrainian forces have lost their early battlefield momentum and most U.S. officials interviewed for this report believe Zelensky faces no clear military course to regaining the 20 percent of his country that Russia now occupies. While Russia has lost more than 300,000 troops to injury or death, according to U.S. estimates, it retains advantages in manpower and hardware, as Moscow continues to outproduce the West in artillery and other arms while having turned to Iran and North Korea for help supplementing its domestic industrial capacity.

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Wednesday that Ukraine would need time to “dig out of the hole” caused by Congress’s six-month delay.

Biden administration officials cite what they believe Ukraine has done well despite the disappointment of its unsuccessful counteroffensive last year: defending vulnerable areas in Ukraine’s north and east, where Kyiv has permitted only limited Russian gains in the past year; keeping crucial commercial shipping lanes open in the Black Sea while putting Russia’s naval fleet on the defensive; and threatening the Kremlin’s stronghold in the occupied Crimea peninsula.

Austin, speaking to reporters Friday, said Ukraine’s path would be “dependent upon whether or not Ukraine can effectively employ these systems and sustain those systems, and whether or not Ukraine can mobilize an adequate number of troops to replenish its ranks.”

Air Force Gen. Charles Q. Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the newly approved funding package would “help shape the future.”

With the battle in Congress now over, U.S. officials say they will turn their focus to Ukraine’s other urgent challenges, including the country’s struggle to mobilize more troops.

In recent weeks, Ukrainian lawmakers have passed steps to streamline conscription and lower the age for men to be eligible to be drafted for military service from 27 to 25. Zelensky’s government, hoping to reclaim fighting power from a population far smaller than Russia’s, also has asked European nations to help encourage the return of some of the millions of military-age men who fled Ukraine following Putin’s invasion.

“The manpower situation is the growing problem,” said Rob Lee, a former U.S. Marine now at the Foreign Policy Research Institute who has closely followed the Ukraine conflict. “And if that’s not fixed, then this aid package is not going to solve all Ukraine’s issues.”

Kyiv has not said how many troops will be needed in 2024 and 2025. Ukraine’s previous top commander, whom Zelensky replaced in February, said that number could be as high as a half-million. While the current commander has said the number is smaller, even marshaling a fraction of that is a risky proposition for Zelensky.

Ukraine’s personnel shortfalls also underscore the political challenges that Zelenksy’s government will likely face as the war grinds on. The ongoing debate over mobilization is a delicate one for Zelensky, who must marshal enough combat power to keep Russia at bay but also avoid shattering the national unity already under strain after more than two years of bloodshed and deprivation.

A U.S. official said the Biden administration is cognizant of the delicacy of its conversations with counterparts in Kyiv about the country’s personnel gap.

“Who are we to say, ‘You just need to draft more men to fight.’ But at the same time, it is a real concern,” the official said. “The laws they have passed in the past couple of weeks will help them, but they’ve got to mobilize more forces and find a way to inspire more Ukrainian men to come to the front lines.”

A Ukrainian lawmaker who spoke on the condition of anonymity to be candid said they believed Zelensky’s announcement in February that 31,000 soldiers had been killed since 2022 vastly downplayed the war’s true toll.

The military death count, which Ukraine had long refused to disclose, likely had to be presented as lower to avoid disrupting an already-struggling recruitment and mobilization drive, the lawmaker said.

The mobilization effort has been hampered in part by concerns over the open-ended timeline of a combat tour, frustrations with low pay and concerns that Ukraine’s government will not properly care for the families of those killed or wounded, the lawmaker said.

“We see so many deaths and so many wounded,” the lawmaker said. “If they go, [troops] want to know how long they will be there.”

Crucial to regaining momentum, Lee said, is for Ukraine to get more recruits in uniform soon, because they must be trained individually and in groups if Kyiv hopes to avoid the problems it encountered during last year’s failed offensive.

“All that requires time, and that’s why the longer it goes without fixing the manpower and mobilization situation, the less likely a large-scale 2025 offensive becomes,” Lee said.

The U.S. military’s training program for Ukrainian troops, an effort concentrated in Europe, has slowed, officials say, suggesting a depletion of the personnel pipeline. The last brigade trained in Germany was in January or February, the officials said.

Ukraine’s strongest European backers are equally troubled by its manpower situation. Poland, which like other countries from NATO’s eastern flank is investing heavily in its own defenses, is the primary transit point for the vast majority of U.S. aid flowing into Ukraine.

“It’s definitely the time to reconstitute the troops,” he said. “It is perhaps the most critical factor that will determine whether they will be successful or not.”

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Se robaron el dinero de las "ayudas".



Situation on frontline has worsened, Ukraine army chief says
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68916317

Ukraine's commander-in-chief has said the situation on the frontline has worsened in the face of multiple Russian attacks.

Oleksandr Syrskyi said Ukrainian forces had withdrawn from positions in the eastern Donetsk region.

Russia is trying to take advantage of its superiority in manpower and artillery before Ukrainian forces get much-needed supplies of new US weapons.

The US last week agreed a $61bn (£49bn) package of military aid for Ukraine.

But new US weapons are yet to make their way to the frontlines, where Ukrainian troops have been struggling for months with a shortage of ammunition, troops and air defences.

"The situation at the front has worsened," Gen Syrskyi said in a post on the Telegram messaging service on Sunday.

He confirmed Ukrainian forces had withdrawn from some of their positions in an area of Donetsk that had formed part of a defensive line, established after Russia captured Avdiivka in February.

Much of the fighting has been taking place around Chasiv Yar, a Kyiv-controlled stronghold which Russia has been trying to reach after seizing Avdiivka.

New defensive lines had been taken up further to the west in some areas, with Gen Syrskyi conceding the loss of territory to the advancing Russians.

Moscow had secured "tactical successes in some sectors," he said.

Gen Syrskyi added that rested Ukrainian brigades were being rotated in those areas to replace units that had suffered losses.

Russia's defence ministry earlier on Sunday reported its troops had captured the village of Novobakhmutivka, around 10 km (6 miles) north of Avdiivka.

Gen Syrskyi became commander-in-chief of the country's armed forces in February.

It followed speculation about a rift between his predecessor, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Earlier this month, Gen Syrskyi warned the battlefield situation in the east of the country had "significantly worsened".

The commander of Ukraine's National Guard, Oleksandr Pivnenko, said this week that he was expecting an attempt by Russian forces to advance on Kharkiv, Ukraine's second city, which is near the Russian border.

US President Joe Biden this week signed off on a $95bn (£76bn) package of aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan after months of gridlock amid opposition to the aid from some in Congress.

The Senate passed a similar aid package in February, but a group of conservatives who oppose new Ukraine support had prevented it from coming to a vote in the House of Representatives.

On Friday, the Pentagon said it would "rush" Patriot air defence missiles and artillery ammunition to Ukraine as part of its new military aid package.

Between February 2022 and January 2024, the US gave Ukraine more than $40bn in military aid, according to German research organisation, the Kiel Institute.

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El Gran Reemplazo en pleno:



Ukraine will be looking for 4.5 million workers in next decade – Ukraine's Ministry of Economy
https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-looking- ... 41722.html

Ukraine will have to attract an additional 4.5 million workers to the labour market over the next ten years to carry out its post-war recovery.

Source: Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy

Details: The report notes that Ukraine faced a labour shortage even before the full-scale invasion. However, now that over 6 million Ukrainians have been forced to go abroad, the labour situation in the country has become even more critical.

The Ministry of Economy estimates that over the next ten years, Ukraine will need to attract an additional 4.5 million employees to the labour market.

Quote: "The recovery of the labour market is not a legacy of victory but a path to victory. As the country approaches the post-war era of society's recovery, labour needs will only grow to meet economic recovery demands," the Ministry of Economy said.

Details: Ukraine is holding consultations with the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) and the International Labour Organisation (ILO) on this issue.

"IOM and ILO plan to continue to support the Ministry of Economy in paving the way for labour market recovery to achieve key priorities," the Ministry of Economy said.

"We look forward to working closely together to help the state on its path to recovery and to shape a more promising future for Ukraine and its people. Economic recovery is paramount to this process," said IOM Chief of Mission Anh Nguyen.

The report suggests that this includes refreshing the labour market in Ukraine based on new economic realities.

"It is time to lay the foundations for a renewed labour market that will make the best use of people's knowledge, skills and abilities and offer them new economic opportunities, decent work and social protection. We reaffirm our readiness to support Ukraine's efforts in this direction," said ILO National Coordinator Serhii Savchuk.

Background: Last year, the Ministry of Economy developed a new draft law on labour. An analysis of the draft law suggests that if it is adopted, we will finally be able to get rid of the Soviet ideology of labour relations.

In April of this year, the Ukrainian Parliament adopted a draft law to regulate the work of domestic workers. The essence of the document is to introduce the concept of "domestic work" into the legislation.

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Los rusos tienen a los ucros tovueltos locos con el jamming de GPS.



Another US precision-guided weapon falls prey to Russian electronic warfare, US says
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2024 ... ys/396141/

U.S.-provided precision-guided munitions have failed in mission after mission in Ukraine, taken down by Russian electronic warfare. On Wednesday, the Pentagon revealed the latest casualty.

A new ground-launched version of an air-to-ground weapon developed for Ukraine on a rapid timeline failed to hit targets in part because of Russian electro-magnetic warfare, Bill LaPlante, the Pentagon's acquisition chief, said at an event held by think tank CSIS.

LaPlante suggested that Ukraine may no longer be interested in the weapon. “When you send something to people in the fight of their lives that just doesn’t work, they’ll try it three times and they’ll just throw it aside,” said LaPlante.

The weapon LaPlante is referring to is very likely the Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) based on his description, according to Bryan Clark, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.

A Boeing spokesperson did not confirm that LaPlante was referring to GLSDB, but said the company is “working closely with the [Defense Department] on spiral capability improvements to the ground-launch SDB system.” Spiral capability improvements refers to an iterative software development process.

The GLDSB boasts a range of 90 miles—double the range of the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMRLS) missiles Ukraine previously used to wreak havoc on Russia’s logistic centers. Funding for the weapon was approved in February 2023, and Ukraine was reportedly using the weapon by February 2024.

The weapon relies on GPS to navigate to its targets. It also has an inertial navigation system, which navigates to a target by estimating its position through the use of accelerometers and other devices.

But it is not the first GPS-guided weapon to fall afoul of Russian electronic warfare.

In congressional testimony in March, Hudson Institute Senior Fellow Daniel Patt said the targeting system for the GPS-guided Excalibur round “dropped from 70 percent effectiveness to 6 percent effectiveness over a matter of a few months as new EW mechanisms came out” in Ukraine. Patt cited the work of Jack Watling, an expert at think-tank RUSI who has traveled to Ukraine multiple times to interview Ukrainian commanders.

Russian electronic warfare attacks have also directed GMLRS missiles off course, CNN reported last spring. The missiles are similarly guided by a GPS. Russia has also successfully used electronic warfare against GPS-guided Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs), which are retrofitted aerial bombs.

Russian electronic warfare on the U.S.’s “more precise capabilities is a challenge,” the commander of the chief U.S. aid coordinating group told an audience in December.

Clark, citing a presentation by Ukrainian soldiers, said the Russians use GPS spoofers to throw off the munitions.

GPS spoofers work by sending false location data to GPS navigation devices. Because GPS signals are weak, a stronger, false signal can be sent to override the correct inputs. Russia has used GPS spoofing in Ukraine since at least 2018. But advancements in technology mean spoofers can be created cheaply with just a software-defined radio and open-source software.

The weapons the spoofers are working against, meanwhile, are anything but cheap. A GMLRS missile costs around $160,000, while an Excalibur round can cost as much as $100,000. The GLDSB costs around $40,000.

However, the weapons were largely designed for a period before spoofers were so easy to set up, Clark said. “You didn't really see the advent of miniaturized, capable GPS spoofers until the last ten years or so, because you needed the micro-electronics to be able to do it,” Clark said.

Russia has saturated the front with electronic warfare, Clark said. Truck-mounted electronic warfare systems primarily focused on jamming drones are located every six to nine miles on Ukraine’s frontline, he said.

But Ukraine could use other U.S. munitions that are not susceptible to GPS spoofing, Clark added, citing the Harpoon missile.

The U.S. could also provide more sophisticated munitions, like the JASSM (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile), but Clark discounted that possibility because of its range. The Biden. administration has sought to limit Ukraine’s use of longer-range weapons that could target Russia directly.

Another solution might be to launch weapons from F-16s. Ukrainian pilots currently launch JDAMS from Soviet planes that can’t pass navigational data to the JDAMS, whereas F-16s can, Clark said. Ukrainian pilots are training on F-16s and will be ready to fly them by the end of this year.

Ukraine can also work to jam Russia’s systems, Clark added. Russia has mostly been using an analog of the JDAM, the KAB, which can also be misdirected by spoofing its guidance system.

And Ukraine is “fielding some systems now” for electronic warfare targeting of satellite navigation, Clark said. Still, since Russia is targeting civilian populations, “they may not care that much if they get spoofed.”