Tal y como Vlad a establecido las cosas este conflicto posee en mi opinión dos pronósticos: la caída de Vlad de manos de actores internos en Rusia, o una escalada mundial, una tercera guerra. El anexo del territorio Ucraniano nulifica cualquier otra alternativa.
Aqui comparto un extracto de un buen analisis escrito por Daniel Fried in The Atlantic Council.
This is escalation born of desperation
After battlefield defeats, little help from China, and pressure from India and Turkey to end his war against Ukraine, Putin seems to be counting on Europe and the United States to fold in the face of his intimidation and demonstration of political will to continue the war. In a speech today that was awkwardly postponed from last evening, Putin escalated through partial mobilization (of up to three hundred thousand soldiers), a move to annex Ukrainian territory, and a warning to the West that Russia will use “all means at our disposal to protect Russia.” The latter suggests that Putin is threatening to defend lands seized from Ukraine with nuclear weapons.
Putin may calculate that his threats, energy shortages due to Russian cutbacks, and political opposition could lead the United States and Europe to pressure Ukraine to surrender territory in the name of “peace.” Putin has a basis for such confidence: From the start of the war, some in the West—on the hard right, on the left, and a few in the “realism and restraint” school—have made the case for negotiations on Putin’s terms.
But it is more likely that Putin has escalated out of desperation rather than confidence. Ukrainian military resistance has turned out to be more effective than he or almost anyone anticipated. Russia’s military has underperformed, and it is not clear whether adding reservists will change this, at least not soon. And Europe and the United States have shown greater determination than Putin (and many in the West itself) anticipated. Germany, albeit in uneven fashion, has rallied behind Ukraine and seems not to be buckling in the face of energy stresses. French President Emmanuel Macron, after mixed signals, gave a strong speech at the United Nations (UN) General Assembly in support of Ukraine. The British, Poles, Balts, Scandinavians, and other Europeans seem solid in resisting Putin’s aggression, despite taking economic hits. The US government seems both committed to Ukraine and confident that its policy is yielding results. Putin’s announcement—escalating just as world leaders meet at the UN—seems perversely timed to elicit even greater statements of resistance to his war.
Putin must also contend with what seems to be growing domestic opposition to his war. His escalation may partly appease the nationalist opposition. But Russia’s anti-war opposition, while difficult to measure considering that its members face the threat of imprisonment should they speak out, seems to be growing and was bolstered in recent days by iconic Russian pop star Alla Pugacheva, who came out against the war on Instagram.
Much depends on the battlefield. The new Russian forces will not be ready for some time, and Ukraine may continue to gain back territory. If that happens, Putin’s speech today may appear to be empty bluster, like other cocky statements he has made. The United States and European nations need to keep up the flow of arms to Ukraine and be seen as doing so. The United States and Europe need to keep up their economic pressure on Russia, targeting efforts to circumvent technology sanctions and preparing to enforce the upcoming price cap on Russian oil. When Putin annexes more Ukrainian territory, the United States should respond, and one way to do so could be by working with its Group of Seven (G7) allies to repurpose the over three hundred billion dollars in frozen Russian foreign-exchange assets to aid Ukraine’s recovery.
Putin has started his Ukraine war for no good reason and cannot seem to win it. He is escalating, perhaps without the power to match his bluster. It is not hard to discern the fear in Russian ruling circles at the way the war is going for them. The US play now is to show strength, to rally allies and other countries who may have doubts about Putin’s judgment, and to help Ukraine defeat the aggressor—a task within its power and the United States’.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/n ... ppen-next/