Sara Dorn
Forbes Staff
Sara Dorn is a Forbes news reporter who covers politics.
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Oct 27, 2024,10:00am EDT
Updated Oct 27, 2024, 02:51pm EDT
Topline Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight lead over former President Donald Trump, according to two new polls—but most surveys show a dead-heat contest for the White House, keeping the race wildly unpredictable less than two weeks before Election Day.
Democratic Presidential Nominee Kamala Harris Campaigns In Georgia
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign event at Divine Faith Ministries International on ... [+]Getty Images
Key Facts
Harris leads Trump by four points, 51%-47%, in an ABC/Ipsos poll of likely voters released Sunday, up slightly from her 50%-48% edge in early October, while a CBS/YouGov survey out Sunday shows Harris up 50%-49%, a shift from the vice president’s 51%-48% mid-October lead (the ABC poll had a margin of error of 2.5, and the CBS poll’s margin of error was 2.6).
An Emerson College Polling survey (October 23-24) released Saturday has the two candidates tied at 49%, after finding Harris leading 49% to 48% one week earlier (the poll has a margin of error of 3), and it’s the first time in Emerson’s weekly poll that Harris hasn’t enjoyed a lead since August.
Trump and Harris are deadlocked at 48% among likely voters in the Times/Siena poll released Friday (margin of error 2.2), results that are “not encouraging” for Harris as Democrats have won the popular vote in recent elections even when they’ve lost the White House, The Times notes.
The poll represents a decline in support for Harris since The Times’ previous poll in early October that showed her with a 49%-46% lead over Trump, while at least three surveys over the past week show Trump with a narrow advantage and six others found Harris leading.
The candidates are also dead even, at 47%, in a CNN/SSRS poll released Friday (margin of error 3.1), also representing a downward trend for Harris, who led Trump 48% to 47% in the groups’ September survey, while their poll just after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race found Trump with 49% and Harris with 46%..
Trump is ahead 48% to 46% in a CNBC survey of registered voters released Thursday (margin of error 3.1), and he leads 47% to 45% in a Wall Street Journal registered voter poll out Wednesday (margin of error 2.5)—a shift in Trump’s favor since August, when Harris led 47% to 45% in a Journal survey.
Trump also leads Harris by two points, 51% to 49%, nationally among likely voters, including those who are leaning toward one candidate, according to a HarrisX/Forbes survey released Wednesday (margin of error 2.5), and he’s up one point, 49% to 48%, without so-called leaners.
Several other recent polls show Harris ahead: In a Monmouth University poll of 802 registered voters taken Oct. 17-21 and also released Wednesday, Harris has a 47%-44% advantage over Trump among respondents who said they “definitely” or “probably” planned to vote for one of the candidates, while 4% chose “other” and 5% chose no candidate.
Harris is up by three points, 49% to 46%, in an Economist/YouGov survey of likely voters also released Wednesday (margin of error 3) when third-party candidates are on the ballot and respondents are given the options of choosing “other,” “not sure” or “would not vote,” a one-point dip in her lead from the groups’ previous survey taken Oct. 12-15.
Harris leads by four points, 50% to 46%, in Morning Consult’s weekly poll released Tuesday, consistent with last week’s results, but down from her 51%-45% lead in the two polls prior to last week.
Harris erased Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, though her edge has decreased slightly over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average.
And there is a lot of speculation on how they’re wrong this year—and who that may benefit. Read all about it in this story.
Who Do The Polls Predict Will Win The Election, Harris Or Trump?
Trump is favored to win 54 times out of 100, compared to 46 for Harris, according to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast.
Big Number
1.3. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. Meanwhile, Real Clear Politics’ polling average shows Trump up by 0.1, and Nate Silver has Harris up 1.2 points in his Silver Bulletin forecast.
How Does Harris Perform Against Trump In Swing States?
Harris leads in Michigan and Nevada, while Trump leads in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina—though all are within the margin of error—while Georgia and Arizona are tied.
Surprising Fact
A poll from NBC News released Sept. 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, the lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll—which was conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters—showed 54% supported Harris compared with 40% who supported Trump and 6% who said they were unsure who they would vote for. The support for Harris is higher than it was when Biden was running against Trump, NBC said, but is still significantly lower than past leads Democratic candidates have had, including a 36-point lead in 2020 polling and 50-point lead in 2016 polling. The poll had a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.
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How Did The Debate Impact Polls?
Pre-debate surveys found Harris’ polling surge appeared to plateau, including a NPR/PBS/Marist survey of registered voters taken Sept. 3-5 that showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%, down from a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate surveys show the majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly impact the horserace between the two. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released Sept. 19 found the majority of voters in every demographic gave positive reviews of Harris’ Sept. 10 debate performance, with 67% overall saying she did well, compared to 40% who said the same about Trump. Harris was up 52%-46% among likely voters and 51%-47% among registered voters in an ABC News/Ipsos poll taken days following the debate on Sept. 11-13, essentially unchanged from her six-point leads with likely voters in late August and early August ABC/Ipsos surveys—even though 63% of Americans said Harris won the debate.
Key Background
Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his reelection bid in the wake of his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her in a virtual roll call prior to the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his pick for vice president. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on Sept. 10 from Philadelphia. Harris’ rise in polls is coupled with an increase in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has nearly doubled since Harris’ entrance into the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has stayed stagnant at 71%, according to a Monmouth University poll released Aug. 14.
Further Reading
New HarrisX/Forbes Poll: Trump Leads Harris By 2 Points—But 12% Are Still Deciding (Forbes)
Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Latest Surveys Show Trump Up In Nevada, Georgia (Update) (Forbes)
Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Up By 1 Point In Latest Survey—As Harris Struggles With Latinos (Forbes)
Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Leads In Latest Survey—But Undecided Voters Could Tip Results (Forbes)
Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Up 3 Points In Latest Survey (Forbes)
Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Narrowly In Latest Survey (Forbes)
Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Crucial Swing State In Latest Survey (Forbes)
Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads By 3 Points In Latest Survey (Forbes)
North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Leads By 3 Points In Latest Survey (Forbes)
